Big question
When the platform chooses the query, the copy and the landing page, is the growth incremental?
The position
Assume less incrementality than the platform reports and more than zero, then run your own geo holdout. The honest answer today is that the published evidence predates the page you are buying on.
Why it is live
Paid search products increasingly decide query matching, creative and final URL, so reported improvement can be better execution or wider capture of demand you already had. Google extended dynamic search into AI Max during 2026, and the published brand incrementality evidence was gathered on a results page that had no generated summary at the top.
The case for the platform figure
Trade reportedThe products reach queries the account never listed, and the platforms report incremental conversions against their own baselines.
The case against
UnknowableNobody has published a brand search incrementality experiment run on a page carrying a generated summary, none of the live estimates is auditable, and the platform designs and grades its own test.
Where the weight sits
Against the platform figure. The case for a discount is strong and the size of the discount is yours to measure, which is a plan for the next quarter rather than an argument.
What would change this
Any advertiser publishing a geo holdout on brand terms with AI Mode present, or Google publishing an incrementality study for AI Mode results.
Where this is taught
Connected Search
Sources
- Google, DSA upgrade to AI Max, 2026primary
- Google agentic commerce tools, 11 Jan 2026primary