Big question
How do you hold local reach when protected political money takes the inventory?
The position
Plan against the higher forecast, commit early in the exposed markets, and hold cancellation options through the window. The forecasters disagree by more than most plans carry in contingency.
Why it is live
Political demand arrives in a fixed window, is protected by rate rules a commercial advertiser does not get, and lands hardest on the same local stations every cycle. AdImpact forecast a record 11.6 billion dollar cycle in June 2026, and Reuters reported on 4 September 2026 that the Supreme Court preserved party committee access to lowest unit rates in the general election window.
The case for planning around it
DocumentedThe calendar is published, the lowest unit rate rules are documented law, and displacement follows both.
The case against budgeting a number
ContestedTwo respected forecasters, quoted in the same December 2025 article, differ by about a tenth on the single most consequential line in a station's year.
Where the weight sits
The direction is settled and the magnitude is not. Plan for the direction, and never put the magnitude in a budget line you have to defend.
What would change this
Post-election revenue disclosure in station group results, which converts each cycle's forecast into a settled figure one cycle late.
Where this is taught
Where this has moved
Connected Local
Sources
- AdImpact 2026 election cycle forecast, 11 Jun 2026secondary
- Reuters, 4 Sep 2026secondary
- FCC national broadcast ownership cap replacement, 6 Aug 2026primary